I’m finishing my third beer at a Barcelona bar — I’m in Spain, trying to see if I can move my exile further from Russia — and there are explosions happening all around, because it’s Hogueras de San Juan, a Spanish New Year-like festival celebrating the shortest night of the year. These are the good, safe kinds of explosions.
I text my mom back in Russia, “Are you guys about to have a civil war?”
She texts back, “I’m not sure. Just catching up on this over on Facebook.”
What we’re referring to is the statements made by Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner group, made in the last hour. He claims his people have been attacked by the Russian armed forces, and he’s going to take revenge on the country’s military command.
There are 25,000 of us, and we’re coming to sort out the causes of the bespredel1 that’s happening in the country. 25,000 is the tactical reserve, and the strategic reserve is the entire army and the whole country. Anyone who wants to, join us, we need to put an end to this mess.
He says that Russia’s Minister of Defense, Sergey Shoigu, fled from the city of Rostov “cowardly, like a woman.” He says he’s taking his people onto a “march of justice,” and he will destroy anybody who gets in his way.
There are no reports of him actually going anywhere though.
I exchange messages with my friends, and the prevalent feeling is this all feels too much like a spectacle. Russians tend to be conspiratorially minded.
Until the war, Prigozhin was a shadowy figure. He denied being the owner of Russia’s Internet Research Agency, more commonly known as “a troll farm,” which tried — and, some believe, succeeded — to interfere in politics in the US. He sued people for claiming he had anything to do with the Wagner group. He was not making many public pronouncements.
Since the invasion though, he became very prominent. The first time he went viral was when he started recruiting convicts in Russian prisons to fight in the war. I translated and published the speech he made at one such prison, which sounded like something out of The Expendables. He later admitted both to founding the IRA and owning the Wagner group. A symbol that’s now associated with him is a sledgehammer — a viral video showed a Wagner warrior smashing a deserter’s head with one.
About a month ago, Prigozhin announced a project called Wagner: The Second Front, without specifying what it was about, and went on a tour of Russian cities. He gave interviews and made speeches, looking like an army general turned politician. No one I know is a fan of his — generally speaking, my crowd is ill-disposed towards sadistic murderers — but most agreed he looked very compelling, a kind of a populist radical, a truth-teller on a campaign against the corrupt military command, hinting towards a deeper corruption of the Russian state.
We thought, either he’s been green-lit to do this, and the project was to turn him into a political safety valve — somebody reliable and controllable whom the pro-war radicals unhappy with the way the war has been going could follow and feel validated — or he was making his own moves, perhaps to later trade the political capital he was amassing for more power or money down the road. I leaned towards the latter.
Well then, starting at about 9pm Moscow time on June 23, he made a new move by releasing a sequence of short audio messages in his Telegram channel, which I referred to above and will quote in full below.
I talked to my wife, in Yerevan, Armenia, on the phone. “Yo, so what do you think?”
Her theory in these first minutes — apparently wrong, judging by the rapid developments since — was that Putin was looking to change his unpopular military command and rally the people around new symbols and figures for a new chapter of the war drama.
Shoigu and a few others — incompetent, maybe traitorous — could be blamed for the less-than-overwhelming performance of the Russian armed forces in the first year of the war, and a new crop, but not Prigozhin himself, would be tasked with turning the thing around. “My only reservation,” she said, “is, if this is a spectacle, it seems too well-directed. These talentless fucks wouldn’t have pulled it off.”
I offered an alternative theory: perhaps Prigozhin had made a deal with the Ukrainian government, in which case this is a part of the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive.
A possibility of something like that was suggested by the Discord Leaks last month. Per Washington Post:
Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.
Zelensky got very irritated when asked about this by WaPo:
Listen, to be honest, well, you just read something, you say something. I just don’t understand where you get it, whom you talk to and so on. ... You are releasing some sort of information that does not help our state to attack and does not help us to defend our state. So, I don’t quite understand what you are talking about.
I don’t quite understand your goal. Is your goal to help Russia? I mean, that means we have different goals. …
Each of these inquiries simply demotivates Ukraine, demotivates certain partners to help Ukraine. Well, one way or another, I just don’t understand your goal.
It’s been about 5 hours since Prigozhin’s initial remarks.
The FSB has opened a criminal case against Prigozhin and called his orders “criminal and traitorous.”
Army General Sergey Surovikin, who was the commander of all Russian forces between October of last year and January of this, appealed to Wagner group’s soldiers to disobey Prigozhin.
There are military vehicles on the streets of Moscow and Rostov-on-Don. In Rostov, it’s hard to say which belong to Prigozhin, and which to the Ministry of Defense.
The Ministry of Defense also issued a statement saying, “Taking advantage of Prigozhin's provocation, the Kiev regime is preparing for an offensive on the Artemovsk tactical direction.”
Putin’s spokesman Peskov said only that “the President has been informed” and that “necessary measures are being taken.”
I’m smoking a cigarette on a balcony of a room I am renting here in Barcelona until Wednesday next week. It’s 1 am, the celebratory explosions are so loud they’re scaring the kids in the street, and their cries are added to this bizarre, mocking soundtrack to my war news.
Well, I thought I should check-in with y’all and give you this quick update.
I’ll be translating Prigozhin’s missives as new ones come in below. I’m also adding some comments from prominent Russians (and one Ukrainian).
Prigozhin’s statements
9:09 pm, Moscow time
We were lowly deceived and attempted to be deprived of the opportunity to protect our homes. We were ready to make concessions to the Ministry of Defense, surrender our weapons, find a solution for how we would further protect the country. But these scumbags didn't stop. Today, seeing that we are not broken, they launched missile strikes at our rear camps. A huge number of fighters, our comrades in arms, were killed. We will decide how to respond to this atrocity. The next move is ours.
9:25 pm
The council of commanders of Wagner PMC has made a decision. The evil carried by the country's military leadership must be stopped. They disregard the lives of soldiers, they have forgotten the word "justice," and we will restore it. So those who destroyed our guys today, those who destroyed tens, many tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers, will be punished.
I ask everyone not to resist. All who try to resist... We will consider it a threat and destroy immediately. Including any checkpoints that stand in our way. Any aircraft that we see overhead. I ask everyone to remain calm and not succumb to provocations, stay in your homes. It is advisable not to go out on the street along our route.
After we have finished what we had started, we will return to the front to protect our Homeland. The presidential power, government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia and other structures will continue to work as usual. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers and return to the front. Justice in the army will be restored, and after that, justice for all of Russia will be too.
9:41 pm
Shoigu just cowardly ran away from Rostov. At 9 pm, he ran cowardly, like a woman. So as not to explain why he lifted helicopters to destroy our guys, why he launched missile strikes. This scumbag will be stopped.
9:49 pm
There are 25,000 of us, and we're coming to sort out why there is bespredel in the country. Twenty-five thousand are waiting as a tactical reserve, and the strategic reserve is the entire army and the whole country. Everyone who wants to, join in, we need to put an end to this disgrace.
10:15 pm
Details have begun to emerge. The Minister of Defense arrived in Rostov for the sole purpose to conduct an operation to destroy the Wagner PMC. He used artillerymen and helicopter pilots blindly to destroy us.
10:29 pm
This is not a military coup. It's a march of justice. Our actions do not interfere with the troops.
10:39 pm
Most of the military warmly supports us. Messages come in, “Thank you, guys! Finally, there will be justice in the army. Finally, you will achieve that we get ammunition and that they stop throwing us into the meat grinder.” Information has just come in: the Minister of Defense ordered two thousand bodies stored in the Rostov morgue to be hidden, so as not to show the losses.
2:03 am
Regarding the current situation. Today we were subjected to a missile attack. After that, helicopters were employed. Then artillery. Orders to destroy Wagner PMC came from the Chief of the General Staff after a meeting with Defense Minister Shoigu, during which they made this decision — to annihilate rebellious units that are ready to defend their homeland, but not their commanders’ asses.
At the moment, we have crossed state borders everywhere. Border guards came out to meet us and embraced our fighters. Now we are entering Rostov. Units of the Ministry of Defense, or rather, conscripts, who were sent to block our way, have moved aside. We don't wage war on children. We don't kill children. Children are being killed by Shoigu, sending untrained soldiers, including conscripts, to war. He has put eighteen-year-old boys against us. They could all be our children or even grandchildren. So these boys will live and return to their mothers.
We fight only with professionals. But if someone gets in our way, we will destroy everything that stands in our path. We extend our hand to everyone. You shouldn't spit on this hand. We continue, we go to the end.
Regarding statements about arrests. This is brotherhood, justice, honor, conscience — that’s what we have. And when you make statements, you don't have these feelings. They have been destroyed in you, these feelings. Therefore, you can't understand anything but betrayal.
2:29 am
Just now, the Chief of the General Staff gave the order to lift the planes and open fire on the convoys that are moving among civilian cars, among trucks. He doesn't care who to kill. They have been killing their peaceful citizens for a year and a half, instead of fighting the enemy. I want to thank the pilots who, as just became known, refused to carry out criminal orders.
3:20 am
The Chief of the General Staff does not calm down. The mistake of any African dictator is to strike residential areas from the air. Right now in the air are two aircraft numbered 523 and 546, which are trying to make these strikes.
Remember, guys. Your homeland will not forgive you for striking its own territory. We must show courage and strike enemy territory when our infantry is advancing.
So the speculations about us hindering someone on the front from fighting are just that, speculations. We are not hindering anyone. We are preventing the criminals who have destroyed about a hundred thousand Russian soldiers — Gerasimov and Shoigu — from saving their asses.
3:45 am
A helicopter just opened fire on a civilian convoy and was shot down by the Wagner PMC.
5:14 am
On the Moscow highway, one of the assault squads came under fire from helicopters. In the Wagner PMC unit, everyone is unharmed, but the helicopter has been destroyed and is burning in the forest strip. I warn everyone again: we will perceive as a threat and destroy everything around us. They cannot destroy us. We have goals, and we are ready to die, all 25,000 of us, and then another 25,000, because we die for our Motherland, we die for the Russian people, who need to be liberated from those who attack the civilian population, as they did in Rostov just now from helicopters. One pilot, belonging to the FSB, refused to carry out the sortie and strike.
7 am
A new one, supposedly in a response to a question from a Telegram channel:
Evgeny Viktorovich, media reports have surfaced stating that the Wagner Private Military Company has seized administrative buildings and the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov. The city is essentially under your control. Was it difficult to capture the headquarters, and did you face any resistance?
The response:
Combat occurs in those areas where the military leadership is giving false information to the soldiers, and therefore skirmishes arise. Where soldiers, the National Guard, and the police meet us, they wave their hands in joy, and many of them say, 'We want to go with you.' There are already 60-70 people that joined us, even though we have only traveled a short way. I think half the army is ready to go with us.
7:29 am
A video is posted, where Prigozhin is talking to Russia’s Deputy Minister of Defense Yunus-bek Yevkurov as they sit in the Southern Military District’s HQ.
Yevkurov: “OK, well let’s think about this. What are we going to do?”
Prigozhin: “One more time. We came here. We want to get Chief of the General Staff and Shoygu.”
General Vladimir Alekseyev (laughing): “Take em!”
Prigozhin: “Until they appear, we are blocking the city of Rostov. And we’re marching on Moscow.”
Yevkurov: “Then, I’m going to ask you to take your guys outside.”
Prigozhin: “No. Out of the question. The guys will stay here. We are not hindering you from commanding the troops.”
Yevkurov: “Naturally, you must not hinder the command of the troops in any way, because the guys there are dying..."
Prigozhin: “The guys are dying because you’re throwing them into the meat-grinder."
They bicker like that for another minute or so.
7:47 am, a video message:
We are at the headquarters. It's 7:30 in the morning. Military sites in Rostov, including the airfield, are under our control. The planes that leave for combat operations depart as usual, they have no problems. Medical flights depart without any issues. All that’s being done is we took control to prevent the attack aircraft from striking us, but to make them strike at the Ukrainians. The main control point operates as usual, there are no problems, no officer is detached. So when you’ll be told that the Wagner Private Military Company has interfered with the work and therefore something has gone wrong on the front, it hasn't gone wrong because of that.
When we came here, we once again confirmed a lot new information. A vast amount of territory has been lost. The number of dead soldiers is 3-4 times higher than what the documents sent upwards indicate. And what is reported in the documents is ten times less than what they say on TV. Daily medical losses amount to up to a thousand people. These are the dead, missing, wounded, and so-called refuseniks who refuse not because they are scared, but because they have no way out — there are no ammunitions, no command. The Chief of the General Staff ran away from here as soon as he found out that we were approaching the building.
I think I will stop here for now and try getting some sleep. You might consider subscribing for further updates, but I should warn you I don’t normally do this kind of reporting — my usual fare is (to simplify criminally) ideas I get when I’m stoned. I’ve heard some coffeeshops in Barcelona are friendly to tourists, so maybe the next update on my country’s disintegration will be in that genre.
Comments
Sergey Surovikin
General of the Russian Army
I have just arrived from the front line on the orders of the Russian Ministry of Defense, where our troops, commanders, soldiers, fighters, and volunteers are performing their duties, fighting to the death against superior enemy forces. They are sustaining losses, but are holding their positions.
I appeal to the leadership, commanders, and fighters of the Wagner PMC. We fought together, took risks, sustained losses, and triumphed together. We are of the same blood, we are warriors. I urge you to stop.
The enemy is just waiting for our internal political situation to escalate. We cannot play into the hands of the enemy during this difficult time for the country. While it's not too late, we need to do this — to obey the will and the order of the president elected by the people of the Russian Federation, stop the military convoys, return them to their permanent bases and concentration areas. All problems should be resolved peacefully under the leadership of the supreme commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Dmitry Peskov
Putin’s Press Secretary
President Putin has been informed about all the events around Prigozhin. The necessary measures are being taken.
Russian Ministry of Defense
All messages and video footage disseminated on social networks on behalf of E. Prigozhin about the alleged RF Ministry of Defense’s strike on the “rear camps of the Wagner PMC” do not correspond to reality and are an informational provocation.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to carry out combat tasks on the line of contact with the armed forces of Ukraine in the area of the special military operation.
Russian General Prosecutor's Office
The investigative department of the FSB of Russia lawfully and reasonably initiated a criminal case against Prigozhin E.V. under article 279 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation for organizing an armed rebellion on June 23, 2023.
His actions will be given a proper legal assessment. The punishment for this crime is imprisonment for a term of 12 to 20 years.
FSB
The Armed Forces of Russia continue to carry out combat tasks on the line of contact with the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of the “special operation.” The case regarding Prigozhin's call for rebellion has been initiated due to the seriousness of the situation and the threat of escalation of confrontation in the Russian Federation.
We urge the fighters of the Wagner PMC not to carry out Prigozhin's criminal orders and take measures for his arrest. Prigozhin's statements and actions are calls for the start of an armed civil conflict in the Russian Federation and a “stab in the back” to Russian soldiers.
Kirill Budanov
Head of Military Intelligence of Ukraine
Putin’s fragile dictatorship has fallen. The Rashists have begun to bite and gnaw each other for power and money. Prigozhin threatens to “march” to Moscow. According to him, Shoigu fled from Rostov so as not to become a victim in the massacre. What we have been talking about for a long time has happened.
Oleg Deripaska
Russian billionaire (under sanctions from the US, EU, UK, and Ukraine)
Coup. No. No preconditions for success. Relax.
Igor Strelkov
Former head of the Ministry of Defense of the Donetsk People’s Republic
I observe and state that the country is on the verge of an attempted military coup. Who is initiating it is unclear. It is possible that both warring factions of the "party of power" are striving for it, with the third staying neutral (FSB and the Security Council).
The attempt at a military coup has begun. If it's not fake, this is the military rebellion and coup that a certain "ensign-reconstructor" (Strelkov means himself) warned about for so long and so often that he himself got tired.
Anna Dolgareva
Russian military correspondent
A completely terrifying statement by Prigozhin about a rocket strike from the rear on the Wagner camp. No less terrifying is what is read between the lines: a coup d'etat. However, I bet that there will be no coup and everything will be resolved peacefully, and in August-September the Wagner PMC will storm Kharkov.
The Ministry of Defense denies the missile strike, but there is a certain tension in the capital.
God, give us peace. We do not need internal strife during a severe war. Let everything be resolved in the best possible way — for example, they will remove Shoigu and Gerasimov, and replace them with Surovikin.
Evgeny Poddubny
Russian military correspondent
Brothers and sisters. Keep calm. My personal messages are flooded with questions about whose side I am on. I report: I am on the side of the President of Russia and on the side of our country. And our country is at war. Follow the official messages of law enforcement agencies. I remind you that the enemy is on the line of contact. The enemy continues offensive actions. Our fighters continue to destroy the enemy.
Anton Krasovsky
Propagandist
As a friend of mine used to say, “I haven’t been worried about my place in this boat for a long time now. I am much more concerned about the safety of the boat itself.”
God, save our Russia!
Alexander Kots
Military correspondent
“Alexander, are you for Prigozhin, the agency, or the Ministry of Defense?” — subscribers ask. I am for common sense, which is sorely lacking now. Knowing the value of words at these moments, I'll keep my opinion to myself. No matter which side you look at, there's a zhopa2 everywhere.
Denis Kapustin
Leader of the Russian Volunteer Corps3
I think, although we stand on different sides of the barricades and have different views on the future of the Russian Federation, I can call him a patriot of Russia, without sarcasm and irony. The tension in the upper echelons of power in the Russian Federation has grown, sanctions and failures at the front have intensified the processes of “decay and disintegration.” And now we have an ambitious, angry, popular among the people and the military environment patriot who owns his own private army, a demoralized population tired by a bloody war and an incoherent political power. Get ready!
Chaos, lawlessness. Literally, “without limits.”
A hopeless situation. Literally, “ass.”
Russian paramilitary organization fighting on the side of Ukraine
Remain calm... there are experts in the background who deal with these situations. CiA and mi6 etc.
Wish I was there....Barcelona that is.